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A position from
Paul Lamford and Will Richardson
Brains and Drains
versus
Alef Rosenbaum and Justin Le Patourel
Prime
and Cunishment
by Paul Lamford
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Adjusting for gaps in a bear-off is always a difficult
area. Here A&J lead
39-46, but we need to add a penalty for the nasty five gap
in particular. I
guessed, at the time, that A&J should be given a 4 pip
penalty, 3 for the 5-gap
and 1 for the 2-gap plus the possible 4-gap. For P& W
I thought 1 or 2 pips, 1
for the 2-gap and 1 for a possible future 4-gap with six
checkers above it. I
decided on 2. This made the race 43-46.
My formula Pr = 50% + (R+900+400*L)/(R+7*L+25) where
R is the race length of
the leader and L is the lead gives Pr, the cubeless
probability for the
player on roll, as 50% + 2143/89 which is around 74%,
giving a strong double. A&J
procrastinated but lost their market over the next roll.
Some of the hoariest myths, the most insidious
misconceptions, stem from the
mistaken belief that I decide on the adjustment for gaps
after I know the
cubeless probability of winning, so I offered our
opponents and the attendant
Hoggs a spread of 72%-75% for the winning chances for
A&J, but there were no
buyers or sellers. The exact database figure of 73.4% was
a good advert for the
formula.
| Cube
action equity |
| Rollout |
Money
equity: |
0.469 |
| |
0.0%
0.0% 73.5% 26.5%
0.0% 0.0% |
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| 1. |
Double,
take |
0.800 |
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| 2. |
No
double |
0.725 |
(-0.074) |
| 3. |
Double,
pass |
1.000 |
(+0.200) |
| Proper
cube action: Double,
take |
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This file has been
generated by
Snowie Professional Edition Version 4.1, a product of SnowieGroup
SA
Output date: 09:17:17, 29/08/2003(Export
v2.10)
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